Virginia hits ‘back of the net’ on PFML; who’s next? 

Surprise results are common during the FIFA World Cup group stage. Case in point, the recent 0-0 Spain-Cabo Verde draw. However, the soccer tournament becomes more predictable in the later knockout rounds. With the recent exception of Morocco, the usual suspects from Europe and South America typically advance.

Similarly, Colorado, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Virginia have one thing in common, enacting Paid Family and Medical Leave laws in the 2020s. Who will be the next PFML state this decade? Here are some relevant factors:

• Legislative composition. Each of these states had blue trifectas, meaning Democrat control of the governor’s mansion and both legislative chambers. Prior to Virginia’s blue trifecta that passed a PFML mandate this year, similar bills in 2024 and 2025 were vetoed by the then-Republican governor. Currently, Hawaii, Illinois, and New Mexico have blue trifectas. Only Illinois is still in session, but the scoring chances for the Illinois bills (HB 2946, HB 3483, and SB 2413) appear dim in 2026.
• Election shifts. Minnesota and Virginia passed PFML laws the year after election results changed representation from red or purple to blue. Pennsylvania, with HB 200 still in play, and Vermont have close, divided governments. The November elections could eventually bring PFML to those states.
• Popular demand. Colorado’s PFML path differed. A 2019 law studying PFML’s potential triggered a 2020 ballot measure. Notable crowd support ushered the PFML program to victory with nearly 58% of the vote. While a PFML mandate is not on any state ballot in November, this is a possible future route in states where legislation has stalled. This route, though, is not nearly as certain as a Harry Kane penalty kick.
• Voluntary before mandatory. Virginia became the first state to enact a PFML program mandate after missing the net with a law allowing voluntary group family leave insurance, which few if any employers chose to offer to employees. Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Kentucky have similar laws. PFML programs in New Hampshire and Vermont are mandatory for the state government and voluntary for private employers. Could one of these states follow Virginia’s example and be next to score with a PFML mandate?
• Peer pressure. Do not discount the influence of nearby states. Just as Lionel Messi’s popularity raised interest in all Major League Soccer teams, PFML popularity in Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and Washington, DC, may increase the likelihood of PFML adoption among their neighbors, like Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
• Wild cards. The tournament’s first 100 matches will eliminate all but four teams. In 2022, Morocco defied odds to become the first African nation to reach the semifinals. Sometimes, state legislation can be equally surprising. I have two wild card PFML picks. Michigan has a narrowly divided government and already tackled paid sick and safe leave. Nebraska already has a paid sick and safe leave mandate and a potentially easier path with a unique on-field formation known as a unicameral legislature.

One thing is for sure. This year’s World Cup will end on July 19, but the state PFML discussion will continue for years to come.