Five ways to prepare for a polycrisis 

Several interconnected risks facing the world could trigger and exacerbate multiple crises over the next decade. According to the Global Risks Report 2023, it is possible that we are entering a low-growth, low-cooperation era coupled with rising volatility across environmental, geopolitical, and socioeconomic spheres. This is elevating the risk of a “polycrisis” involving energy and food supply crises, rising inflation, cyberattacks, failure to meet net-zero targets, weaponization of economic policy, and weakening of human rights. 

We believe there has never been a better time to refocus on resilient portfolios that can withstand shocks and uncertainties, adapt to changing conditions, and seize investment opportunities. This is essential if wealth managers are to protect client assets and find the right balance between risk and opportunity. 

Capital market return expectations are at their highest in years¹ due to last year’s market correction. To better manage tail risks, however, further diversification from a simple 60/40 equity-bond portfolio split is of importance. 

The good news, according to our 2022 Global Wealth Management Investment Survey², is that wealth managers believe one of the biggest investment opportunities lies in diversifying portfolios away from traditional equities and bonds. 

To build portfolio resilience and make the most of available opportunities, Mercer believes there are five key considerations that inform how to tackle the potential polycrisis, whatever form it takes: 

According to our 2022 Global Wealth Management Investment Survey, respondents expect portfolio SAA to change in 2023, following the already material portfolio changes that have occurred over the past three years. 

In our view, 2022 represented an investment regime change: equity and bond markets simultaneously produced double-digit negative returns for the first time in 150 years³ as a result of the pandemic, policy responses and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We believe the combination of these triggered a shift in investing conditions across several areas. Some of these factors are directly related to the inflation story, while others are not: real interest rates and discount rates; leverage and liquidity; valuations and correlations; and energy and climate transition. 

We support bringing SAA reviews forward to reset asset allocation structure, considering the new investment regime. The material change in underlying investment conditions has created a need to reassess medium- to long-term portfolio positioning. 

However, we do not necessarily support increasing the frequency of SAA reviews. To justify and support more frequent reviews, wealth managers will need effective, market-sensitive, forward-looking assumptions that are responsive to changes and updated often. This will be a resource-intensive undertaking. 

An important point is that we do not encourage wealth managers to simply reweight to focus on equities and bonds because of the stronger returns on offer. Rather, what is required is a full reset to reflect the broader nuances of the new regime. 

The opportunities in the wake of last year’s decline in markets are not found only in higher-return expectations for public markets and the potential for a profitable vintage year for private markets. Wealth managers must allow for scenario outcomes outside the central base case of benign inflation and a higher-than-expected return outlook, and they need to consider the risk that correlations might not reset to pre-pandemic levels in the way forward-looking returns may have done. 

Therefore, it is important for wealth managers to explore the full range of available investment options, find new sources of portfolio returns, and diversify their portfolios in alternative ways.

Having a robust governance framework helps mitigate a wide variety of risks that can impact outcomes. It also can reveal where regulatory risk needs to be minimized and controlled, reducing the potential for intervention and costly errors. 

Wealth managers experienced a significant increase in complexity in the wake of the global financial crisis. In response, they adapted to new regulatory requirements and diversified their investment range, increasing portfolio robustness and sophistication. However, while diversifying portfolios was the right thing to do, it created a dilemma — more diversification places pressure on governance, oversight, and operational management. 

The scope of portfolios has expanded beyond traditional investments in developed market equities and government bonds. Fixed income now includes sophisticated strategies such as multi-asset credit and private debt, while the breadth of equity market strategies has expanded to include sustainable themes, listed real assets, and China A shares. Moreover, there are additional investment-related challenges and complexities, including investments in private markets’ net-zero targets and a sharp increase in market volatility. 

Just as an SAA review may be timely, wealth managers seeking to improve their governance and maintain control over their portfolios should consider whether they are clear enough on the fundamentals of their portfolios, asking, “Is our portfolio and its allocated assets assigned to suitable managers who have been researched thoroughly?” A back-to-basics refresh could help ensure that portfolios remain fit for a new environment, effectively manage rebalancing and cash flow requirements, have sufficient governance and reporting frameworks, and are abreast of any regulatory compliance that may have changed recently.

Clients are unlikely to achieve their desired outcomes if the fundamental building blocks of their portfolio implementation are flawed. 

Wealth managers have not faced such challenging conditions when implementing investment portfolios for a long time. Margin pressures, legislative changes, increased operational requirements, greater demand for internal resources, and a change in the investment regime are happening in tandem with increased systemic risks and opportunities and a proliferation of investment strategies. But there is a way forward.

Wealth managers should review portfolio implementation both across and within asset classes. And there are some key questions to address as part of this process: 

Many wealth managers are considering a variety of engagement models to augment their in-house expertise in the face of crises. 

Our 2022 Global Wealth Management Investment Survey revealed that wealth managers are actively exploring a continuum of engagement models across a wide range of functions. By working with external partners, firms have been able to spend more time serving clients and their increased demands as well as spending more time developing new business. 

From outsourcing to extension of staff, traditional consulting, insourcing, and strategic alliances, there is a broad range of potential solutions to challenges around margin pressure, rising fixed costs, and increasing regulatory requirements. 

Wealth managers can maintain control over their portfolios through a fully outsourced model or a hybrid approach. By delegating day-to-day management decisions to a trusted team that can ensure portfolio resilience through robust risk management and strategic positioning, wealth managers can focus on other challenges faced by their firms. 

Depending on the size and market position of the strategic partner, the right engagement model might help reduce costs. Strategic partners may be able to assist in fee negotiations with fund managers and other service providers, thereby helping them to reach goals more quickly or reducing time and money in a portfolio resilience refresh. 

Highly customizable models make investment solutions suitable for portfolios of all levels of complexity. The best engagement models are flexible and adaptable, providing wealth managers with tailored solutions that align with their specific client investment objectives, portfolio development, management, and monitoring.

To build portfolios that are more resilient and better prepared for a polycrisis, wealth managers should focus on these key areas: 

A clean slate through an SAA review is a first step. Together with a thorough governance review and frank assessment of the portfolio implementation plan, this can provide the basis for addressing long-term goals and remaining responsive to short-term opportunities. 

From that position, managers can and should explore diversification, particularly into areas they may not have explored before, whether in terms of dynamic diversification or looking to new avenues such as private markets. 

While the way to seize these opportunities may not be clear, engaging with the right partners could help with portfolio planning or delegating day-to-day management. An extra pair of hands and a little more headspace could aid wealth managers in crafting a position that is fit to tackle any crises coming our way.

1 Mercer Capital Market Outlook, January 2023. 

2 Mercer 2022 Global Wealth Management Investment Survey. 

3 Morgan Stanley Investment Research, 2023 Global Strategy Outlook — The Year of the Yield. 

4 Mercer. “Mercer’s Equity Guiding Principles and What They Mean for Your Portfolio.”