Optimising benefits strategies for 2024: Navigating inflation’s impact

Many organisations are now structuring their 2024 benefits strategies — core to how they manage people risk. This is particularly challenging given current economic circumstances as organisations struggle to address the impact of inflation, and more specifically rising medical costs. To do so, employers will have to articulate and execute on well-planned cost-optimisation strategies, consider new ways to advance holistic wellbeing and put greater focus on vulnerable populations, such as low-paid employees.
Uncertainty has been the name of the game for benefits specialists over the past few years. Although medical plan trend (the annual rate of increase in per-person claims) has stabilised since the pandemic, it’s still higher than pre-pandemic levels according to Health Trends 2024 research. At the same time, benefits managers are trying to cope with a polycrisis of issues impacting benefits — from climate events to misinformation to ongoing economic uncertainty.
As a result of these economic challenges, employees are facing multiple new hardships, from rising interest rates to unaffordable housing. In response, employers are trying to get ahead of what significant inflation means for designing and financing their employee benefits and wellbeing plans.
Industry concern is high — governance and financial risks featured prominently in our People Risk 2022 research. Among the 25 risks reviewed in our report, three such risks made the top 10: administration/fiduciary; the increasing cost of health, risk protection and wellbeing benefits; and benefits, policy and reward decision-making and accountability.
In light of ongoing inflation, a key concern among employers is whether the current environment will have a significant impact on medical and insured benefits.
Although employer costs for employee medical coverage are affected by inflation (due to increases in the per-unit costs for medical services and supplies), other factors must also be considered for budgeting and rate-setting. These include:
- Altered treatment mixes (for example, moving to more expensive treatments, like newer high-cost drugs for obesity and diabetes)
- Changes in utilisation patterns (for example, people choosing private over public care)
- Rising interest rates (which typically boost the investment returns of insurers and enable them to offset some of the higher claims for which they’re liable)
- Regulatory changes (for example governments prescribing minimum coverage levels)
The upshot is that insurers, advisers and plan sponsors alike face numerous difficult issues when trying to anticipate 2024 claims. Will compensation increases continue for healthcare workers who are in short supply? Will demand for new treatment regimens further drive up claims, or will new developments in areas like at-home patient monitoring and digital triage make managing conditions more cost effective?
According to publicly available economy-wide data (not specifically employer-sponsored), medical cost inflation is now as pronounced as — or even exceeds — general inflation in many countries.
- In Canada, health and personal care prices have increased by 5.8% between September 2022 and August 2023, while the total consumer price index (CPI) has increased by 4.0% in this period. 1
- In the UK, reports through August show an 8.5% increase in health pricing, whereas CPI is 6.3%. 2
- In Brazil, the inflation rate of health and personal care stood at 10.1% in July 2023 compared to the same month of the previous year. This is this highest among all reported categories. 3
- Healthcare has seen an increase of 6.4% in India. This is lower than increases in other sectors in the country, such as fuel and lighting (10.8%) and household goods (7.3%). 4
It is our view that inflation will likely have an impact on 2024 renewals in most markets. Claims experience and the demography of covered individuals will also be strong influencers of employer premium increases.
Top three benefits plan considerations for 2024
Conclusion
Even before inflationary pressures hit, employers were in the process of resetting benefits to make them more relevant and to manage people risk more effectively. As businesses have grappled with the ongoing effects of the pandemic, a number of other positive developments have come to the fore. These include advancements in digital access to health benefits, a desire to solve health and benefits inequities, and the acceptance of a broader business case for investment in employee support.
We recommend that employers start to think immediately about how they can support their most vulnerable people while continuing to engage with all employees to support their wellbeing. Employers must also consider reasonable cost-containment measures for their benefits plans. This will be vital for managing long-term cost volatility. Ideally, such measures should steer people toward high-quality care, helping to create sustainable benefits solutions for all.
1 Statistics Canada. “Latest Snapshot of the CPI, August 2023,” Consumer Price Index Data Visualisation Tool.
2 Office of National Statistics. “Consumer Price Inflation, UK: August 2023 .”
3 Statista. “Inflation Rate of Brazil in July 2023, by Sector.”.
4 Government of India, Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, National Statistical Office. Consumer Price Index Numbers on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the Month of July 2023.
5 "Brazil Inflation Calculator: World Bank Data, 1980–2023 (BRL).” Official Inflation Data, Alioth Finance, September 13, 2023, available here.
Partner, Global Advice & Solution Leader, Mercer Marsh Benefits
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