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Why grocery price trends matter
Grocery costs are a consistent and fundamental part of everyday living expenses, serving as a reliable indicator of broader cost-of-living trends. Tracking changes in grocery prices reveals shifts in inflation, supply chains, currency values and economic conditions that directly affect workforce mobility and compensation planning.
Ultimately, understanding global cost dynamics empowers business leaders to align their strategies with real-world economic conditions, driving sustainable growth, enhancing competitive advantage and ensuring organisational resilience in an increasingly interconnected world.
Basket price changes
From 2024 to 2025:
- Africa: Mixed results with Johannesburg and Dakar showing notable increases, while Nairobi experiences a slight decrease.
- Asia: Slight increase overall, driven mainly by growth in Beijing, Mumbai, Tokyo, and Singapore, balanced by small decreases in Seoul and Hong Kong.
- Central and South America: Sao Paulo shows a consistent and significant increase.
- Europe: Moderate growth across the region, led by strong increases in Warsaw, Madrid, and Paris.
- United Arab Emirates: Stable consumption with moderate growth in Dubai.
- North America: Mostly stable with a moderate increase led by New York and
- Toronto, while Los Angeles sees a slight decrease.
- Pacific: Sydney experiences a sharp increase, indicating strong recent growth.
From 2015 to 2025:
- Africa: Significant increases overall, led by Johannesburg and Dakar, with strong inflationary pressure on grocery prices.
- Asia: Substantial growth driven by Beijing, Mumbai, and moderate increases in other cities like Hong Kong and Seoul.
- Central and South America: Sao Paulo shows a very high and consistent increase over the decade.
- Europe: Wide range of increases, with strong growth in Warsaw, Madrid, and moderate rises in cities like Berlin and Rome.
- United Arab Emirates: Relatively low increase, indicating more stable grocery prices in Dubai.
- North America: Modest increases overall, with cities like New York showing moderate growth and others like Los Angeles and Toronto remaining relatively stable.
- Pacific: Moderate increase in Sydney, reflecting steady growth over the decade.
Cost changes from 2024 to 2025:
- Grocery costs significantly increased in Madrid, Sao Paulo, Sydney and Warsaw.
- Seoul, Hong Kong and Nairobi experienced price decreases.
- Berlin, Dubai, Singapore and Toronto showed relatively consistent year-on-year cost changes.
Cost trends from 2015 to 2025:
- Johannesburg, Sao Paulo, Beijing and Warsaw experienced the most significant cost increases over the decade.
- Cities with the lowest cost increases include Toronto, Sydney, Dubai, Los Angeles and Tokyo.
Key observations
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Africa:Mixed results with Dakar and Johannesburg showing a moderate rise and Nairobi a slight decrease
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Asia:Slight increase in overall food prices, driven mainly by growth in Tokyo, Beijing and Mumbai, balanced out by a small decrease in Seoul and Hong Kong
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Central and South America:Consistent increase in São Paulo
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Europe:Moderate growth in overall costs, with increases across the region led by Warsaw, Madrid and Paris
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United Arab Emirates:Stable prices, with growth in Dubai
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North America:Relatively stable prices with some growth in New York and Toronto, but a slight decrease in Los Angeles
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Pacific:Steady costs in Sydney, with marginal growth
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Africa:Strong upward trend, with all cities showing increased costs, particularly Johannesburg, which has experienced a substantial increase over the past 10 years
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Asia:Significant growth driven by Beijing and Mumbai
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Central and South America:Substantial growth over the decade exhibited in São Paulo
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Europe:Relatively stable prices, despite high increases driven by Warsaw; decade growth supported by stable economies, although Mediterranean cities faced inflation and Brexit-related impacts
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United Arab Emirates:Moderate increase, driven by Dubai’s growth
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North America:Moderate growth driven by New York's increase
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Pacific:Moderate growth seen in Sydney, consistent with regional trends
Conclusion
In today’s interconnected world, businesses must understand regional cost-of-living dynamics at a detailed level to stay competitive. Accurate assessment of grocery price trends and their drivers enable leaders to anticipate financial impacts, manage operational risks and make confident strategic decisions.
This insight supports critical business functions, such as effective resource allocation, enhanced employee support and improved operational efficiency. As global markets evolve, maintaining awareness of these regional economic nuances and global cost trends is essential for aligning business strategies with real-world conditions, driving sustainable growth and maintaining competitive, equitable talent programmes worldwide.
The groceries analysed comprise a selection of goods, representative of various categories of everyday food items. Each item has been assigned a weight that reflects hypothetical weekly household consumption. Prices were converted from local currencies into USD for accurate global comparisons. A common exchange-rate date was used for all conversions to eliminate the effect of currency fluctuations over time.
Included items
- Fresh produce: Bananas, potatoes
- Bakery: White sliced bread
- Dairy: Butter, eggs
- Meat and poultry: Whole chicken
- Pantry staples: Flour, rice, sugar, salt
- Beverages: Soda, instant coffee
- Condiments and cooking essentials: Ketchup, olive oil
- Snacks and sweets: Chocolate candy bars
