Growing geopolitical fragmentation, inflationary pressures and continued uncertainty around central bank and governmental policy have potential to affect insurers’ investments
Mercer, a global consulting leader in advancing health, wealth and careers, and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies (NYSE: MMC), today announced areas of focus for insurers’ investment assets for the coming year, as growing geopolitical fragmentation, inflationary pressures and continued uncertainty around central bank and governmental policy have potential to affect insurers’ investments.
“Global financial markets have generally held up well over 2016, especially given the unexpected geopolitical events that have occurred.” said Ravi Rastogi, Insurance Group Leader, Europe, at Mercer. “Recent equity market rallies further signal that investor sentiment is moving in a more “bullish” direction. That said, there are significant downside risks persisting due to concerns around the sustainability of the economic recovery, increasing inflationary pressures, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and practical limits around the efficacy of central bank and governmental policy actions.”
Mercer suggests that insurers prioritize the following areas for 2017 for their investments including:
- Optimize the operating model: Investment operating models are the framework covering all aspects of the investment approach, from governance to strategic asset allocation to implementation. Insurers are increasingly looking to review and optimize their operating models to deliver superior net returns.
- Protect the downside: The uncertain macroeconomic and political environment continues to give the potential for sudden significant volatility across financial markets. For bond yields and currencies, it is important to consider risk holistically across assets and liabilities, and the overall asset-liability management approach should be reviewed to confirm that this approach appropriately manages these risks.
Capture emerging risks and opportunities. The US Federal Reserve Bank appears increasingly poised to raise interest rates more quickly than was anticipated at the start of 2016, with this being further encouraged by Donald Trump’s stated views on fiscal policy expansion as well as the potential for a more protectionist policy. These factors may further exacerbate volatility in emerging market assets and currencies which presents both risks and opportunities for investments in emerging markets and hence the allocation both to and within emerging markets should be reviewed.
Investigate alternative return generators: The global policy focusing on monetary stimulus has created an abundance of capital seeking higher investment returns. This has led to a reduction in the yields available on the assets traditionally used by insurers. To improve the quality of returns achievable from growth portfolios, non-traditional sources of return, including wider use of assets that provide for an illiquidity premium and that rely on manager outperformance (also known as “alpha”), should be considered by insurance companies.
Investigate real assets: Insurers are typically long-term investors. As such, they should review the significant potential benefits offered by investing in real assets such as real estate and infrastructure, particularly given that these assets can also provide some protection against a higher inflation environment, which now looks more likely.
Understand and utilize liquidity: Insurers typically ensure adequate asset liquidity to support the insurance and operational needs of the business. However, holding excess liquidity can present a significant opportunity cost in the form of lower returns. Insurers should regularly review their liquidity risk and requirements to not only ensure that business needs are met, but also to ensure that investment opportunities are not missed.
Integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations: ESG factors are gaining increasing prominence when setting an insurer’s long-term investment approach. One recent stimulus is the ongoing global initiative to introduce voluntary climate-related financial disclosures at a company level, which will potentially have a far-reaching impact on insurers. Proactively considering the impact the initiative may have on reporting and disclosure from an investment perspective is a task recommended to insurers.
Adopt smarter implementation: While investment strategy is generally the key determinant of realized returns, efficient implementation can provide a notable added value. Insurers are encouraged to undertake such actions as ensuring asset management fees are competitive, leveraging the scale of assets across the balance sheet and considering the outsourcing of mandates for non-traditional assets that previously would have been accessible only to larger investors.
Consider alternative risk quantification measures: Value-at-risk measures continue as the market standard for risk measurement, and are a main measure that insurers focus on when setting their investment strategy. While such measures are a key tool for measuring risk, there are several limitations in their use. These traditional risk measures should be complemented with alternative measures (eg scenario analysis) both when setting the overall market risk appetite and when determining the underlying strategic asset allocation.
Align management information with need for dynamism: The quality and quantity of management information provided to insurance boards and committees has improved in recent years, driven by factors such as increased regulation and stakeholder demand. However, this is still a work in progress for many insurers. In addition to ensuring the appropriate quality of management information, insurers should look to move one step further in setting and monitoring specific triggers for action (e.g., around asset-liability mismatches) in case experience diverges materially from expectations.
The Investing in a New World: Top 10 Investment Ideas for Insurers paper can be found here:
Mercer is a global consulting leader in talent, health, retirement and investments. Mercer helps clients around the world advance the health, wealth and careers of their most vital asset – their people. Mercer’s more than 20,000 employees are based in 43 countries and the firm operates in over 140 countries. Mercer is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies (NYSE: MMC), a global professional services firm offering clients advice and solutions in the areas of risk, strategy and people. With annual revenue of $13 billion and 60,000 colleagues worldwide, Marsh & McLennan Companies is also the parent company of Marsh, a leader in insurance broking and risk management; Guy Carpenter, a leader in providing risk and reinsurance intermediary services; and Oliver Wyman, a leader in management consulting. For more information, visit www.mercer.com. Follow Mercer on Twitter @Mercer.
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